On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a precision military strike against Iran, triggering global market panic. Looking back at US-Iran tensions in early 2020 that nearly escalated into a full-scale war—though they lasted only about a week before de-escalating and did not evolve into sustained military conflict—many observers at the time believed the impact would be limited. Yet subsequent developments confirmed a fundamental supply chain principle: “short-term shock, long-term transmission.” A 7-day military conflict may appear fleeting, but disruptions to global manufacturing, shipping, and energy supply chains are typically transmitted with a lag and can persist for several months.
Notably, President Trump publicly stated that this military operation may not end quickly and could last more than 4 weeks. If prolonged, its impact on global manufacturing would be significantly greater than that of a short 7-day conflict. It is therefore necessary to develop forward-looking assessments based on both historical precedent and current market conditions. This article analyzes two hypothetical scenarios: a conflict lasting 7 days and a conflict extending beyond 4 weeks.
Energy Impact: Oil Price Volatility and the Lagged Transmission of Cost Pressure
The most direct impact of the 2020 US-Iran standoff was concentrated in energy markets, shipping, and key raw materials. After the standoff began, Brent crude oil prices rose rapidly from $60 per barrel to $75 per barrel, an increase of 25 percent. Although tensions eased within a week, oil prices did not immediately decline. Instead, they remained elevated and volatile for nearly two months, returning to more stable levels only after market expectations and supply chain sentiment normalized.
If the current conflict ends within 7 days, military deployments in the Strait of Hormuz would not be withdrawn immediately, and market anxiety regarding oil supply disruption would likely persist. According to projections from multiple external market institutions, crude oil prices could surge to $100–$110 per barrel and remain elevated for one to two months. This would directly increase energy and chemical raw material costs for global manufacturing. As seen in 2020, rising oil prices rapidly translated into higher costs for industries such as chemicals, plastics, and chemical fibers, compressing corporate profit margins.
If the conflict lasts more than 4 weeks, the energy impact would escalate to a systemic level. Current market analysis suggests that navigation risk in the Strait of Hormuz would increase sharply, placing approximately 30 percent of global seaborne crude oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas shipments at risk of significant disruption. Brent crude prices could rise to $120–$150 per barrel, potentially approaching the $138 per barrel peak observed in early 2022. Unlike short-term volatility, such elevated prices could persist for more than six months. Combined with speculative buying, global manufacturing energy costs could effectively double. High-energy-consuming industries such as steel, chemicals, and cement could face widespread production suspensions, and even large enterprises might be forced to curtail capacity due to sustained cost pressures. At the same time, prolonged high oil prices would accelerate investment in alternative energy solutions. Demand for photovoltaic and wind power, along with traditional alternatives such as coal and coal chemicals, would likely increase significantly, creating structural shifts across related industrial value chains.
Shipping Disruption: Route Adjustment is Easier than Cost Normalization
The lagged impact on global shipping was particularly evident during the 2020 standoff and provides a direct reference point for current risk modeling. Although the Strait of Hormuz was not formally blocked in 2020, shipowners adjusted routes and reduced sailing speeds as precautionary measures. War risk insurance premiums for Middle East routes surged threefold within a short period and remained elevated for three to six months, declining only after regional stability returned. Simultaneously, temporary route adjustments reduced global container turnover efficiency, delayed empty container returns, contributed to port congestion, and drove freight rates higher.
If the current conflict ends within 7 days, previously implemented detour strategies—such as routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope—would not be immediately reversed. A single detour can add 10–14 days per leg, extending the global fleet turnover cycle. As a result, tight shipping capacity, elevated freight rates, and shortages of empty containers could persist for two to four weeks or longer, replicating patterns observed in 2020. Manufacturing sectors dependent on Middle East trade routes would face both cost inflation and delivery delays.
If the conflict extends beyond 4 weeks, shipping disruption would likely exceed 2020 levels. Carriers may suspend Middle East routes entirely rather than rely solely on detours. Global container turnover efficiency would decline sharply, and empty container imbalances would intensify. Major global ports could experience widespread congestion, with berthing delays extending up to one month. War risk premiums could surge further, and some insurers might refuse to underwrite Middle East-related routes altogether, making cargo transport operationally impossible regardless of cost. Potential airspace closures would further complicate international logistics. The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea—critical trade corridors linking Europe and Asia—could face severe disruption. Global manufacturing delivery cycles could extend by two to three months, export orders could be canceled or disputed, and cross-border logistics providers could face significant financial distress.
Raw Material Shortages: From Temporary Gaps to Structural Supply Cutoffs
The 2020 standoff also revealed vulnerabilities in key raw material supply chains, underscoring the longer-term risks behind even a brief conflict. Public data indicates that Iran is a significant global supplier of certain industrial raw materials, including neon gas used in chip lithography and methanol, where it accounts for a meaningful share of global production capacity. During the 2020 standoff, temporary production and export constraints increased methanol import costs and disrupted downstream industries such as photovoltaic manufacturing, chemical fibers, and semiconductors. These effects persisted for one to two months until supply normalized and inventory levels were restored. Many small and mid-sized chemical manufacturers globally faced production suspensions and order delays due to raw material shortages and higher costs.
If the conflict lasts more than 4 weeks, raw material disruption could escalate from temporary shortages to structural cutoffs. Sustained military strikes could halt industrial production, interrupting exports of key materials such as neon gas and methanol. The global semiconductor industry could experience capacity constraints, affecting automobiles, electronics, and AI hardware manufacturing. Such disruptions could persist for three to six months or longer. Additionally, shortages of chemical feedstocks such as sulfur and liquefied petroleum gas could widen, further increasing input costs and compressing manufacturing margins worldwide.
Current Outlook and Strategic Response: Building Supply Chain Resilience Under Geopolitical Stress
If the conflict ends within 7 days, its impact would likely follow the 2020 transmission pattern: a controllable short-term shock followed by sustained medium-term disruption. Energy prices could remain elevated for one to two months, shipping premiums could persist for three to six months, and raw material disruptions could affect production scheduling for one to three months. While a systemic supply chain collapse would be unlikely, manufacturing sectors—especially automobiles, electronics, and chemicals—would experience cost inflation, component shortages, and delivery delays. The primary challenge would not be the immediate conflict but the lagged impact in the one-to-three-month recovery window, requiring careful management of energy costs, logistics exposure, inventory buffers, and production planning.
If a conflict lasting more than 4 weeks materializes, global manufacturing could face four simultaneous pressures: soaring costs, logistics paralysis, raw material cutoffs, and weakened demand. Energy costs could double, logistics costs could rise three to five times, and key inputs could become unavailable. Core manufacturing sectors could suspend production, global trade volumes could decline, and consumer demand could weaken, reinforcing a negative cycle. Even after hostilities cease, supply chain recovery could take one to two years, resulting in a prolonged adjustment period characterized by high costs, constrained output, and uneven recovery.
Compared with 2020, today’s global manufacturing ecosystem is more interconnected, more energy-dependent, and potentially more exposed to Middle East supply chain disruptions. Many industries are still in recovery phases, with elevated demand for energy and raw materials and tighter logistics requirements. Under either scenario, manufacturing enterprises should accelerate supply chain diversification, redesign logistics networks, increase strategic reserves of critical raw materials, optimize cost structures, invest in energy efficiency and digital manufacturing capabilities, and continuously monitor geopolitical and compliance risks to strengthen long-term supply chain resilience.
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