Following years of price surges, the value of elusive Scotch whiskies sold at auction plummeted in 2024 according to Scotland-based financial advisory firm Noble & Co., indicating that the rare whisky bubble may have “finally burst.”
The firm’s annual Whisky Intelligence Report revealed that bottles of Scotch sold at global auctions for over £1,000 ($1,277) dipped in value by 40 percent over the year to October 1, with sales volume declining by 34 percent in the same period. The stats arrive at a tumultuous time for the overall Scotch whisky market: Exports decreased 18 percent in value and 10 percent in volume in the first half of 2024, according to the Scotch Whisky Association.
Following the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, consumer interest in rare single malt whisky skyrocketed thanks to low interest rates and the quantitative easing of central banks. According to analysts at Noble & Co., the looser economic policies encouraged investors to explore the possibility of financial returns in alternative asset classes, like exclusive spirits. However, as auction values surged in the late 2010s, many producers increased their MSRPs in an attempt to capture some of the gains lost on the secondary market. Now, in a weak, post-Covid economy marked by periods of high inflation and interest rates, demand for high-end spirits is dramatically slipping.
As Jonny Fowle, Sotheby’s global head of whisky and spirits, told the Financial Times, the decision to increase suggested retail values on post-2020 releases was one that lacked foresight. “It’s understandable not to want to leave profit on the table,” he explained. “But it’s a shortsighted endeavor — it’s pricing investors and drinkers out of the market.”
While these more modern releases struggle at auction, older bottles that were priced more reasonably at release continue to fetch massive sums. For example, The Macallan in Lalique 50 Years Old, which was released in 2005, still goes for approximately £50,000 ($63,823) at auction — a whopping 10 times its initial value. Bowmore is another bright spot, with the brand’s first edition, Black Bowmore, bringing in about £15,000 ($19,147) — a far cry from its original 1993 price tag of £100 ($127).
The rare Scotch industry has focused much of its efforts away from Asia in favor of the U.S., where strong economic performance pushed demand for rare whiskey forward. However, as the economy turned down, demand dipped with it — and the threat of U.S. sanctions during Donald Trump’s second administration could further harm the market. Duncan McFadzean, head of food and drink at Noble & Co. explains that some of this lost demand can be picked back up in Asia where regions like Hong Kong have reduced tariffs, but it will be an uphill battle as Eastern economies also struggle.
“The industry thought it was going to be the ‘roaring 20s’ but the reality has been much, much tougher,” McFadzean said. “The industry ran straight into the wall of the cost of living — volumes have been falling and you’ve had profit warning after profit warning from majors.”
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